跑马地

  BBC、路透、华尔街日报这些国外的媒体巨头在建立自己的新媒体（网络媒体）方面一直比较成功，首先原因应该是新闻环境本来比较规范，美国诞生不了新浪这样无耻的内容掠夺者，另一个原因是这些媒体巨头对新技术的使用比中国的传统媒体们要敏感，这大概是在商业环境培养出来的。
   比如RSS，BBC被国外一些市场研究机构评为“提升RSS的伟大样版”。
   RSS虽然目前使用程度不高，但BBC非常看重RSS对传统媒体扩大自己网络渠道的价值，BBC采取了一系列措施来帮助新用户订阅BBC的RSS源。
    BBC甚至建立了新网站,叫thefeedfactory，对用户更方便的使用RSS。
   华尔街日报在使用RSS方面也做得不错，中文版的RSS广告已经打了半年了。
   路透社利用RSS也采取了与RSS服务商合作的方式，提供了详细的RSS订阅页面。
   事实上美国主流报纸都意识到了RSS对于扩大自己网络渠道的重要性，而中国的 传统媒体在这方面进展还是比较缓慢的，新华社的进展比较快，2004年就推出自己的RSS，人民网的英文频道、经济频道引入了RSS，据说都带来了相当可观的访问量，从长远看，RSS完全可能帮助媒体机构越过新浪这样的渠道商，与用户直接互动。

   春运开始了
   像往年一样
   我象无头苍蝇一样到处找人买票

   春节回家看看
   一件多么温馨的事
   但什么原因把这样一件温馨的事变得这么麻烦

   我们在异乡生活、劳动、交税、恋爱、生病、老死……
   但这个国家并不认可我们的价值
   我们是“流动人口”

   像我这样的“流动人口”全中国不知道有多少万
   快到春节了
   我们都在路上
   从别人的地方，回自己的家乡
 

  最近看《转型中的俄罗斯媒体》，书中详细描绘了俄罗斯转型时媒体的经历，也顺带回顾了俄罗斯媒体从十月革命以来的历程。

     让人感触最深的是：媒体不过是有钱有权者的玩具。

     俄罗斯的书报检察制度从沙皇时代就有，列宁们打着自由的旗号革命成功后，本来许诺要媒体开放、自由，但形势并不允许，列宁们事实上直接把反对的媒体一关了之，理由是：戒严时期只能如此，过一阵就再恢复。

     戒严时期过了，苏联也稳固了，但列宁已经归西，媒体们归了斯大林。

     斯大林时期就不说了，到了戈尔巴乔夫的改革时代，口号是新思维，出于改革的需要，戈尔巴乔夫打着“新思维”的口号，媒体管制有所放松。

     戈尔巴乔夫被政变搞下台后，叶利钦首先干的是就是把俄共体系的媒体全部休克，诸如真理报之类，其目的据说是要防止政变消息的扩散。

叶利钦成为总统之后，俄罗斯开始搞自己的新闻法，这部新闻法基本是西式的，但是，很快叶利钦就受不了反对派媒体的批评，特别是左派媒体的批评。在自由的口号下，这些左派媒体让叶利钦的权力被严重削弱。

叶利钦在与国家杜马中的反对派、法律系统、媒体的较量中，直接动用坦克轰了白宫，关了媒体，制定了有利于自己的各色新新闻法规。

到了普京时代，进一步强化对媒体的控制。普京用国有大企业，比如能源，金融企业的资金强化对媒体的控制，普京媒体“宠儿”的形象得以确立。

俄罗斯媒体转型中立了不少关于新闻的法律，但真正的目的只有一个，国家政权要控制媒体。

媒体自由似乎只在政治家的口号中存在过，现实中，它只是一种理想……

听上去有点象张锐的口号:新闻是一种理想……

Cnblog有句话，“中国是一个不善于书写的国度，而blog的出现以后……”，这话说得有问题，中国挺善于书写，中国的古书洋洋大观。

Cnblog的潜台词大概是，中国是一个不善于自由书写的国家，blog出现以后……

但就算有新的技术出现，情况就变了吗？

  　最近两天一边搬家，一边试了一下一些新的网站，注册了N遍，烦不胜烦，让我不禁希望，要是有一个注册自动代理机就好了。

 　一方面我们需要更多的可选择的服务，一方面是众多的有创新精神的公司不断推出原创的或是抄袭的某种服务，这大大增加了我们使用网络的时间成本。

 　比如digg.com，国内抄它就有diglog.com，17dig，dingr等好几家，网摘站也是一堆，三个月前只有一两家，现在做网摘的站点在百度里大概有上百家。

  　多也没有关系，可以针对不同的用户群，但这些站点的功能几乎没有什么差别，优劣还未分出。

　 未来会有哪些方面会决定这些web2.0公司的命运呢？

　专注带来功能的差异，就象搜索领域过去几年发生的那样。

　除了功能创新分出优劣外，商业模式上可能也会朝着我们意想不到的方向前进，就象大家没有想到google会把广告做到这么大，google的广告模式也是一种创新，这种广告模式和过去的广告完全不一样，这大概就是所谓“蓝海”吧。

　留声机是爱迪生发明的，但爱迪生发明留声机的目的并不是听音乐，他的想法是为当时的刚刚兴起的电话配上一个“留声答录机”，虽然电话答录机过了上百年才真正开始普及，但爱迪生发明的留声机早已经成为大众传播和娱乐的重要工具。

　看到了开始，却猜不到结局，这会是大多数web2.0公司的命运吧。

　对创业公司们而言，这也是一个悖论。从逻辑上说，不管是blog、ＲＳＳ、wiki……先满足用户需要再谈商业模式不迟，但ＶＣ们要的是，先看清楚商业模式再投资。

　过上三年，也许人们会感叹，web2.0原来是这样挣钱的，为什么我当时没想到，没有专心一致的做下去呢？

　从这一点上说，做一个专注的模仿者也许是捷径，就象百度对google的模仿一样。

    让我们专注、再专注些吧。

http://www.usatoday.com/tech/columnist/kevinmaney/2005-12-20-jobs_x.htm#

2006 could be year that Apple CEO Jobs falls off pedestal
Sometime in 2006, Steve Jobs will probably get hosed. That's not so much a prediction as it is playing the odds. Nobody in America gets such a long ride on the oh-we-sooooo-adore-you bandwagon.
 
  Steve Jobs holds the iPod Nano at a September event. 
By Paul Sakuma, AP 

Well, except maybe Jennifer Aniston. But look what happened to Martha Stewart. Or Hootie and the Blowfish.

For that reason, Jobs' popularity will be one development to watch in 2006.

As we hurtle toward the end of this year, I started thinking about what might happen in the next one. I also asked a few tech-industry types for their thoughts about 2006. The items below are pretty random — big stories, little stories, odd observations. It's also not in any particular order. Who has time to be that fastidious when Christmas shopping and holiday martinis await?

? Cellphone cameras will actually become useful.

For most consumers, digital cameras on cellphones have turned out to pretty much be vestigial organs. You want a camera on the phone, but the photo quality is marginal. And then pictures end up stuck inside your phone like bugs in a Roach Motel. It's too hard to get them out if you want to print the photos or move them to a PC. So the cameras don't get used much.

That will change in the coming year, says Bob Gove of Micron Technology, which makes the imaging chips in most camphones. Cellphone cameras are going to get good enough in 2006 to replace stand-alone digital cameras, Gove predicts. At the same time, companies such as Pictavision are popping up to make it easier to do more with camphone pictures, such as uploading them to the Internet and creating a slide show.

? RSS will become the biggest thing since ...

The Web browser? Beanie Babies? Salt? Hard to say yet. But there is no shortage of effusiveness about Real Simple Syndication, or RSS — software code used to deliver news stories, blogs and other items via the Internet to your computer screen on readers such as My Yahoo or NewsGator. The prediction is that RSS will become the primary way everyone accesses stuff on the Web.

"We believe 2006 is the year of RSS," says Mark Carlson, CEO of RSS company SimpleFeed. Adds author and consultant Steve Waite, "RSS is likely to take off in 2006 and could well displace e-mail as the killer app on the Net."

? Something that we've been hearing about for a decade might finally arrive — but don't bet your lunch money on it.

How about the "digital living room"? Anybody have one yet? No? Companies such as Microsoft, Intel and Motorola have been pushing this concept forever. It's supposed to be a room where all your entertainment and communications arrive digitally and flow seamlessly from one device to another, all integrated so you can call your mom, order a pizza, watch four football games and monitor the North American missile defense system without leaving your La-Z-Boy.

Yet most of us still have a bunch of ad hoc stuff that doesn't work together.

How about broadband over power lines? Anybody got that? Electric utilities keep saying they'll compete against cable and phone companies to deliver high-speed Internet on the same wires that carry electricity. Hasn't really happened, but they're still trying. This week, power company TXU said it will roll its version out to Dallas/Fort Worth in 2006.

What else? A tablet PC? Who has one? Nobody? Maybe an e-book reader? A wearable computer? A networked fridge?

? Google will help Microsoft get its groove back.

Not intentionally, of course. Microsoft seems to have been flailing in the face of huge shifts in the tech business, many of them led by Google. In November, Microsoft Chairman Bill Gates issued his much-publicized "sea change" memo, calling for the troops to rally the way they did when Microsoft felt challenged by Netscape a decade ago.

"What runs Microsoft's engine is having a competitor stand up and moon them," says author Geoffrey Moore, whose new book is Dealing with Darwin: How Great Companies Innovate at Every Phase of Their Evolution. "Google is mooning them."

Now that that's official, we might see Microsoft back on the attack in '06. Unless Google does to Microsoft what Microsoft once did to Netscape. "The biggest problem for Microsoft is that Microsoft sells what Google gives away," Moore says, which hearkens back to the day when Netscape was selling what Microsoft could give away.

? New game plan in Silicon Valley: launch start-up in the morning, work through lunch, sell company before happy hour, retire.

"Recent trends show Google and Yahoo acquiring start-ups much earlier in their growth cycle, often before they have even raised venture financing," says Steve Hall, managing director of Vulcan Capital, which is Paul Allen's VC fund. Flickr and Del.icio.us were scooped up by Yahoo just about the time the two companies printed business cards. Dodgeball and Android were similarly cradle-robbed by Google.

"Entrepreneurs stand to make just as much money in a near-term $30 million acquisition as they might in a much larger acquisition after three-plus years and substantial VC dilution," Hall says.

Time to break out the bubble detectors.

And finally, there is Apple's Jobs — tech's celebrity superstar. He seems due. Maybe he'll humiliate a bumbling underling on stage at Macworld, unleashing a torrent of stories saying Jobs is the Lord Voldemort of managers. Or someone will discover malicious spyware hidden deep inside iTunes.

The only sure thing is that society, as if striving for equilibrium, will then knock Jobs as far down as we boosted him up. It's just what we do, no?

Kevin Maney has covered technology for USA TODAY since 1985. His column appears Wednesdays.

预测2006年：乔布斯不再神奇 RSS将成No.1　
在2006年的某个时候，史蒂夫·乔布斯的声望将开始下降。这不全是猜测，而是有一定根据的。在美国没有人能够如此长时间地获得这样的声望。出于这一原因，乔布斯的声望将是2006年值得关注的一件大事。

 
在2005年即将结束之际，下面对2006年可能发生的事物进行预测。

·拍照手机上的数码相机将真正有用

对于大多数消费者而言，手机上集成的数码相机都是鸡肋。人们需要拍照手机，但照片的质量却令人不敢恭维。这些照片派不上什么用场，因此拍照手机的用处并不大。明年，这种情况将得到改变，拍照手机将可以取代数码相机。

·RSS将成为No.1

我的预言是，RSS将成为所有人访问互联网上内容的主要途径。RSS厂商SimpleFeed公司的首席执行官卡尔森说，我们相信2006年将成为RSS年。有分析人士认为，RSS将在2006年崛起，可能会取代电子邮件成为互联网上的“最佳应用”。

·数字化客厅

微软、英特尔、摩托罗拉等厂商一直在推动“数字化客厅”的发展。消费者的娱乐和通讯都将实现数字化，信息将能够在设备间无缝地流动。

·Google将帮助微软重振雄风

在技术发生巨大变化时，微软落后了，领先的是以Google为代表的“小字辈”。11月份，盖茨发表了“巨变”备忘录，号召微软员工向十年前迎接网景挑战那样迎接Google的挑战。作家杰弗里表示，推动微软发展的引擎是有一个竞争对手，Google现在就是微软的竞争对手。他说，微软最大的问题就在于，Google免费向用户提供微软试图销售给用户的产品。

原地址 www.donews.net/brucexiong